Do the
Patterns of Your Life Predict Your Future?
On the radio this morning I heard an interesting story that
relates to our discussion about free will and determinism last week.
The story discussed the research of sociologists (particularly,
Matthew Salganik from Princeton University) trying to use computer models to
predict the path of people's lives. As computer algorithms have gotten to
be more powerful, they've become better and better at understanding patterns
and predicting the future. Pandora can guess which songs you might like;
Netflix recommends movies and shows for you personally, based on your previous
history. So can we predict what path a person's life might take, using
the patterns from their past?
The story describes the project:
"So Salganik set to work. He got a massive trove of data
on 5,000 kids who had been followed from the day they were born, then made that
information available to data geeks and researchers across the globe. Four
hundred teams were given incredibly detailed information about the kids from
birth until age nine, then told to predict their grades — and a handful of
other outcomes — at age 15."
What did Salganik find? In fact, the predictions were all very
inaccurate. No one was able to create a model that could reliably predict
where the person would end up based on the data they had been given.
Duncan Watts, a sociology researcher who works at Microsoft
Research, explains:
"We
find exactly the same pattern everywhere we look... when you're talking about
individual outcomes, there's a lot of randomness," Watts says.
"And the other half of this conversation is that people
don't like that answer, and so they keep wanting a different answer. They say
nature abhors a vacuum. Humans abhor randomness. We like
deterministic stories," Duncan says.
We like the idea that patterns can
tell us what will happen in life because that idea makes us feel more secure, he
says.
"If
you think you can predict things— even if you're wrong — it means that you get
up in the morning and you feel confident," Watts says. "And so you
can invest your time and energy today in things that won't pay off until
tomorrow."
We want to be able to predict what will happen, to feel like we
have some kind of control over our lives or over our children’s lives. But maybe there just is a lot of randomness
in life and how things turn out, and we have to come to terms with that.
What should we think about this research? What does it tell us about human life and the
problem of free will?
One possibility is that the lack of deterministic patterns is evidence that humans have free will. Of course human behavior looks random--that's because each person is a free agent and makes her own choice.
But maybe that's not it. Maybe where we end up going is random because the situations that people face are so random. The bank robber in the story because a law professor because of random things that happened to him, not because of something he clearly chose.
Another possibility is that human behavior really is determined by external factors and patterns, but we just haven't learned what they are yet. Presumably there are things that determine, say, the weather, but they are so complex and hard to measure that we haven't yet been able to model and predict weather perfectly... yet! But that's no reason to think we never will be able to predict weather, or predict human behavior, if we have more data and better models.